An End of (Another) Era; NBA First Round Review

Today marked basketball history and the end of an era: the end of the San Antonio Spurs as an elite franchise. The #1 seeded San Antonio Spurs lost to the #8 seeded Memphis Grizzlies in 6 games, only the 4th time in NBA history a #1 seed has lost to a #8 seed, and the 2nd time since the first round went to the Best-of-Seven format. The series as a whole was never close, with the Grizzlies controlling the pace in every game with the lone exception of Game 2. The Spurs looked old, exhausted, and just tired after wasting all of their energy in the regular season just to futilely snag the 2nd best record in the league after losing on the final day of the regular season. Tim Duncan can exercise a player option this offseason, or he can let his contract expire at the end of the 2011-12 season. My prediction is that Duncan will announce his retirement after playing his worst season to date.

The Los Angeles Lakers absolutely destroyed the New Orleans Hornets in Games 5 and 6, winning in champion style by 15 and 18 points respectively. With their win in New Orleans Thursday night, the Kobe & Pau era Lakers improve to 8-1 in series clinching games, a league best. Early on, it was quite evident that Pau Gasol was suffering from a respiratory illness that affected his game, but after he made a 3-pointer in Game 3, his game returned to normal. The only two threats to the Lakers were Chris Paul and Trevor Ariza, neither of which played excellently at the same time. Chris Paul was limited to just 10 points in Game 6, proving once and for all that the Hornets are an incredibly bad team without Chris Paul, who may face a similar situation that Carmelo Anthony went through this past season. Paul's contract will expire at the end of the 2011-12 season, so it is highly likely the Hornets will trade him away to get some type of value back to start rebuilding the franchise from scratch.

In what was called the West series with the most potential for an upset, the Dallas Mavericks were not pleased at all that most analysts had written them off before the series began against the Portland Trail Blazers. They proved it too, going up 2 games to none to begin the series. However, the Blazers were down but not out, tying the series once it went back to Portland. Dallas won Game 5 at home by 10 point in an impressive showing of raw emotion, and finally won a game on the road in Game 6, their first road win since the 2006 playoffs where they blew a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals to the Miami Heat. The ghosts of '06 seem to finally be gone, but they now have to deal with the Lakers, a team that absolutely destroyed them in Dallas during the regular season.

Last year, the Orlando Magic swept the Atlanta Hawks in the 2nd round of the playoffs, after the Hawks played an incredibly lazily played series against the Milwaukee Bucks where the home team lost every game except the last one. This time around, the Hawks were the aggressors, only losing one blowout game while the others were all close, due to the Hawks' genius strategy of allowing Dwight Howard to do anything he wanted while guarding everyone else. The Magic compiled a very unusual team in the middle of the season, dumping the aging Vince Carter that originally they touted as being the final piece to the puzzle after losing to the Lakers in the '09 Finals, as well as dumping Marcin Gortat, Dwight Howard's backup, in order to get more 3-point shooters. In the end, those 3-point shooters were the exact cause of the Magic's loss, because they were atrocious with the exception of Game 5. Like Chris Paul, Dwight Howard's contract expires at the end of 2011-12 season, and could possibly be traded away to salvage value. Knowing the Magic GM, he will probably trade Howard away in order to get more 3-point shooters.

In a surprisingly close 5 games, the Miami Heat knocked out the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers had one hell of a season, going from selecting the 2nd overall pick in the draft to becoming the #7 seeded team in the Eastern Conference. Even more impressively, they managed to win against the Heat utilizing the Heat's well-known Achilles' Heel: game-winning/tying shots. Although the Heat did win in 5 games, every single game was close and demonstrated the mountain of weaknesses the Heat have, particularly their total lack of support at the Point, Post, and inconsistent bench play. The Sixers have a bright future ahead of them with Doug Collins as coach; they need just a couple more years to develop properly until they can become a true playoff contender.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have greatly improved since they battled the Lakers last year, becoming the #4 seed. This year, they went up against the surprising Melo-less Denver Nuggets, but it was clear from beginning to end that the Thunder were going to win the series in 4-5 games. In the Thunder's Game 4 loss, the entire fault could actually be blamed on a single person, Russell Westbrook, who took 30 shots to get 30 points, something you never want your point guard to be doing. 3 of those attempts were 3-pointers with the game on the line, which he managed to whiff horribly while Kevin Durant was wide open. The message was clear after the game and the Durantula took control of the team again in the series clinching Game 5. This series win is the first time the Thunder have won a playoff series since they were called the Seattle Supersonics. Unfortunately for the Thunder, despite being a higher seed, they now have to face the unlikely Grizzlies who managed to beat the ever-loving shit out of them during the regular season.

Similar to the Miami Heat, the Chiacgo Bulls defeated the Indiana Pacers in 5 games, but looked incredibly vulnerable in all 5 games other than the final one. They were losing at halftime in the first four games, a clear sign that whether they faced Orlando or Atlanta in the next round, that type of effort would not be enough to win any games. The final game showed some real effort finally, but the damage had been done. Carlos Boozer has failed to produce, while his fellow mutineers from the Utah Jazz have shined in Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver. Derrick Rose has been playing exceptionally, but the Bulls are similar to the Hornets in that they rely too much on their star to do all the work; the only exception is that Rose is surrounded by better talent than Paul. Expect a hard fought series against the Hawks that will probably go at least 6 games.

Finally (or is it firstly?), the Boston Celtics swept the New York Knicks out of the playoffs with dominating games. Although the Celtics no longer have Kendrick Perkins, are missing Shaquille O'Neal, and have received OKC's trash in Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic, they blew the Knicks out of the water in a series that was never close. Although it was apparent that the Celtics are still hurt by Danny Ainge's betrayal to Doc Rivers, the Knicks were just not ready for the big stage and need help with coaching and a true center; Mike D'Antoni is simply not a good coach in the playoffs and has no idea how to teach defense, while Amar'e Stoudemire apparently will never learn that a power forward who grabs less than 10 rebounds per game is not a power forward. The Knicks do have a future ahead of them, but it's going to require a mountain of re-tooling because so far, Amar'e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony have not been able to co-exist. The Celtics may have decisively won the series, but they face an improved Miami Heat who are out for blood.


In the end, the First Round was made up of a collective FINALLY. The Spurs finally have reached the end, the Grizzlies finally won a playoff game, the Mavericks finally won a game on the road, the Thunder finally won a playoff series, the Lakers finally got their act together, the Bulls finally won with Derrick Rose, the Hawks finally beat the Magic, the 76ers finally are coming back, and ESPN finally stopped talking about how awesome the Knicks and Heat are.

Starting this Sunday, the Conference Semifinals begin with the Grizzlies facing the Thunder, the Mavericks tackling the Lakers, the Hawks going against the Bulls, and the long-awaited clash between the Celtics and Heat. I didn't make any predictions in the first round because I think it's bad karma to bet against the higher seeds in the first round, but this time upsets are definitely possible. The teams I'm picking to go to the Conference Finals are the Grizzlies in 6 games, Lakers in 5, Bulls in 6, and Celtics in 7.