Unsurprisingly, there is little love for the San Francisco 49ers, despite having a statistical similar team to the Ravens. The Steelers are also written off, despite being overwhelmingly favored to defeat the Broncos in the Wild Card round and having defeated the Patriots in the regular season.
Those picks are all idiotic. Here is how every team finished their season, starting with those 4 favorites:
Packers' Schedule
- 6 games vs over .500 teams
- 5 games vs .500 teams
- 5 games vs under .500 teams (1 loss, away)
Patriots' Schedule
- 2 games vs over .500 teams (2 losses, 1 home & 1 away)
- 7 games vs .500 teams
- 7 games vs under .500 teams (1 loss, away)
- 7 games vs over .500 teams (1 loss, away)
- 1 game vs .500 team
- 8 games vs under .500 teams (2 losses, both away)
Ravens' Schedule
- 7 games vs over .500 teams (1 loss, away)
- 4 games vs .500 teams (2 losses, both away)
- 5 games vs under .500 teams (1 loss, away)
Wait, what? The Packers lost their only game to a team with a losing record? The Patriots only faced TWO teams with a winning record and they lost both of them? The Saints lost to 2 teams with losing records and all their losses were on the road? The Ravens lost half of their road games? These are all pretenders. Here's how the other playoff teams performed, for comparison.
Listed in order of remaining playoff seeding, NFC then AFC.
49ers' Schedule
- 5 games vs over .500 teams (1 loss, away)
- 6 games vs .500 teams (2 losses, 1 home & 1 away)
- 5 games vs under .500 teams
Giants' Schedule
- 4 games vs over .500 teams (3 losses, 1 home, 2 away)
- 7 games vs .500 teams (2 losses, both home)
- 5 games vs under .500 teams (2 losses, 1 home & 1 away)
Falcons' Schedule
- 6 games vs over .500 teams (4 losses, 2 home & 2 away)
- 3 games vs .500 teams (1 loss, away)
- 7 games vs under .500 teams (1 loss, away)
Lions' Schedule
- 5 games vs over .500 teams (5 losses, 3 home, 2 away)
- 6 games vs .500 teams (1 loss, away)
- 5 games vs under .500 teams
Wait, what? The Lions lost every single one of their games against teams with winning records? The Falcons only won 2 games against teams with winning records? The Giants only won 1 game against a team with a winning record (Patriots)? Well shit, based on team's strength of schedule and winning percentage, the 49ers look like the best team since they're the only one who did not lose to a team with a losing record in the NFC and won at least ONE game against a team with a winning record. Here's the AFC:
Texans' Schedule
- 6 games vs over .500 teams (3 losses, 1 home & 2 away)
- 1 game vs .500 team (1 loss, home)
- 9 games vs under .500 teams (2 losses, 1 home & 1 away)
Broncos' Schedule
- 5 games vs over .500 teams (4 losses, 2 home & 2 away)
- 6 games vs .500 teams (2 losses, 2 home)
- 5 games vs under .500 teams (2 losses, 1 home & 1 away)
Steelers' Schedule
- 8 games vs over .500 teams (4 losses, 1 home & 3 away)
- 2 games vs .500 teams
- 6 games vs under .500 teams
Bengals' Schedule
- 7 games vs over .500 teams (6 losses, 4 home & 2 away)
- 3 games vs .500 teams (1 loss, away)
- 7 games vs under .500 teams
Wow, that's um... The Broncos and Bengals were absolutely terrible. The Texans and Steelers actually finished strong, not losing any games to teams with losing records and both winning half their games against teams with winning records.
Based on winning percentages and strengths of schedule, the real favorites should be the 49ers and Steelers. The Steelers unquestionably had the hardest schedule of all the playoff teams, but won every game they were supposed to win, as did the 49ers.
I don't want to reveal my Super Bowl picks until the NFC and AFC Championship Games come, but just consider these facts until then.
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